“Japan needs to identify areas at sea that are fit for offshore wind if it is to make use of its potential and build the industry. And this will require coordination between fisheries and the wind industry,” says Chihiro Terasawa, MRI's lead researcher on the report. “Everyone involved needs open data on potential sea areas to ensure quality dialog.”
The sources MRI uses in its analyses span environmental data like wind speed and water depth as well as information on sea-area usage like ship navigation conditions and fishing rights, essential in considering the impact on ship navigation and fisheries. The report also includes estimates on the power generation costs‡ for each sea area identified§.
Findings show a total potential sea area that amounts to 70 GW for fixed and 2,396 GW for floating. Japan’s national targets—30–45 GW for 2040 including floating¶ and the 100 GW of offshore wind required to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050**—represent only a few hundredths of this total potential. The report shows the possibility of achieving each target while minimizing the impact on ship navigation and fisheries.
“We are working on identifying potential sea areas in greater detail, and setting natural and societal factors that better reflect local situations,” says Terasawa. “The key will be to gather the data and insights held by both the wind industry and fisheries into one place. Our goal is to create a virtuous cycle in which the wind industry and fisheries can co-create a quality future together. We will keep working to provide information that underpins this.”
Offshore wind power is an important source of electricity for Japan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 while ensuring energy and economic security as well as promoting industrial development and growth. Market predictability, market size, and the detail of development plans will all be key factors for expanding the Japanese offshore wind market and developing the industry.
* Wind turbines that are attached to a foundation that has been fixed to the seabed
† Wind turbines that are on floating structures that have been attached to the seabed via mooring lines and anchors
‡ This comprises the cost of future farm size expansion, technological innovation, domestic supply chain formation, port and system infrastructure development, and expansion of the project periods. This is a systematic analysis based on limited environmental data and certain assumptions. There may be discrepancies between the results of this analysis and actual power generation costs due to actual natural conditions, future proficiency of the offshore wind market and industry, technological progress, and grid system development costs
§The analysis in this report does not take into account all maritime activities, all natural and societal factors, and the possibility of grid connection. Therefore, it may not correspond to the actual developable sea area. In addition, it only shows potential and does not show the amount required to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050
¶ Public-Private Council on Enhancement of Industrial Competitiveness for Offshore Wind Power Generation(December 2020) “Vision for Offshore Wind Power Industry (1st)” (p. 5)
**Japan Wind Power Association (May 2023) “JWPA Wind Vision 2023” (p. 11)