Noto Earthquake Lessons: Disaster management in super-aged communities

Readiness from the community’s perspective

5 July 2024

Japanese version: 1 April 2024

Saeko Furuichi
Societal Infrastructure Division

Striking an area of severe depopulation and advanced aging, the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake on New Year’s Day laid bare some stark realities of disaster management in the context of super-aged societies. One thing is for sure: Of all the possible measures for dealing with emergencies, any that merely urges actions, without heeding the needs and sentiments of locals who have spent their lives building and maintaining the affected communities, will be ineffective for mitigating and managing the effects of natural disasters in those communities.

Planners must adjust to regional tendencies and take an approach that respects the way of life ingrained in each community.

Preparedness that doesn’t ask for changes in living environment

The share of people 65 and older (“over 65s”) in the Wajima and Suzu municipalities, where damage was massive, is 49 percent—far above the national average. Of localities likely to experience shaking of intensity 5+ (“five-strong”) or greater when the next megaquake strikes on the Nankai Trough, some 20 percent will have about the same share of over-65s by 2040 (Table 1). Given this rapid super-aging of its society, Japan needs to take a hard look at the Noto Peninsula experience to see what lessons can be learned.

Part of the background to the issues that became apparent in the Noto Earthquake’s aftermath, is how old everything is in the affected localities—and this is on top of the age of inhabitants: About half the housing stock in Wajima and Suzu was built before the building code was revised in June 1981 to require more rigorous earthquake resistance*. Given that the older homeowners get, the manifestly less willing or able they are to upgrade their homes or move into new ones (Figure 1), we surmise that few had their homes seismically retrofitted or moved into more quake-resistant quarters.

Further, despite facilitation by Ishikawa Prefecture leadership, secondary evacuation to sites outside the disaster area proceeded only haltingly. As the action got underway, it became apparent that many elderly evacuees were reluctant to relocate. This is a serious issue that will have to be addressed.

A probable factor is that the older communities get, the more mature and closeknit they get. Such communities have long histories and many routine ties that hold them together. And the many social roles divided among their members, and details like the proximity of their family physician, are also assets that underpin elderly citizens’ lives^†. The value of a community for its members thus grows commensurately as they age—as does, it appears, residents’ desire to stay put; i.e., not move away from familiar “home” turf.

In general, seniors find it more difficult if not impossible to make big living-environment changes. Their reasons are multiple, ranging from psychological needs and health concerns to personal ties to the community. In this sense, the Noto Peninsula Earthquake exposed difficult challenges Japan faces: These are issues we must address as we work out what has to be done to enhance disaster resilience.

Table 1: Aging in localities vulnerable to strong shaking in a Nankai Trough megaquake

Source: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. estimates from the following supporting documents
Supporting documents: 2020 Population Census (MIC), Estimates of Japan’s future population by region (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research), Damage situation due to the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake (Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, 22 February 2024), On the extent of anticipated damage (preliminary report) and tsunami height and areas of inundation (secondary report) caused by a major earthquake on the Nankai Trough (Cabinet Office press release of 29 August 2012) (Accessed: 26 February 2024)

Figure 1: Intent to move or renovate by age of primary income earner

Source: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. from MLIT’s Heisei Sanjunen Juseikatsu Sogo Chosa Hokokusho (final report on the 2018 comprehensive survey of housing), 2023 (updated 5 April 2023)
https://www.mlit.go.jp/report/press/content/001358279.pdf (Accessed: 6 March 2024)

Disaster readiness for a super-aged society: A focus on societal layers closest to residents

There is a five-tier model used to analyze how municipalities and communities change over time. I would like to explore the ideal scenarios for community disaster readiness geared for the coming super-aged society with focus on the third (infrastructure supporting society), the fourth (land use and architectural spaces), and the fifth (routine life activities) of the five, since they are the most immediately entwined with the lives of those living there.

Infrastructure supporting society: Autonomous distributed lifeline infrastructure

The Noto Peninsula earthquakes damaged water, electricity, and other lifelines, and delays in their restoration negatively impacted the conditions victims had to live in. Conditions were severe enough to be a potential cause of indirect, “disaster-related” deaths particularly among the elderly. This calls for the widespread uptake of autonomous distributed infrastructure, facilities that can continue to function even when networks are down. As a first step, planners should move to ensure against interruptions of water and power necessary for routine life, utilizing resources like cars that can generate and supply electricity and small, decentralized water recycling systems (Figure 2). This would complement existing initiatives installing park benches usable as cooking grills, emergency wells, and similar kit at evacuation sites.

Assets like these, whether publicly or privately owned, could be an effectual part of communities’ disaster-mitigation toolbox, especially if community members were accustomed to using them, and private owners to sharing them, during normal times. When disaster strikes, they would be ready to go, and people would be used to using them.

Figure 2: A schematic for securing water and electricity during disasters

Source: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

Land use and architectural spaces: Siting elderly care facilities to double as disaster shelters

As of this writing (25 February 2024), thorough damage surveys have yet to get underway; but numerous commentators have pointed out that homes built to the latest seismic code (the “2000 standards”, because they took effect in 2000) are likely to have ridden out the earthquake mostly unscathed. If this turns out to be true, it will make it the second seismic event, following on the Kumamoto earthquakes of 2016^‡, in which these seismic resistance standards have proven themselves effectual. Meanwhile, it also highlights the aforementioned low willingness among the elderly to upgrade their housing, giving rise to concern that the elderly’s reluctance could impede localities’ ability to achieve higher seismic resilience overall.

Initiatives and projects systematically advanced through partnerships between the community and institutions can bring effective solutions. For example, planners could reinforce existing facilities, like social welfare centers, with seismic retrofitting or community spaces that double as shelter facilities. Planners could also reach out to care facilities, hospitals, and other crucial facilities for residents to motivate them to set up shop in regions that need them. The elderly are among those who often need assistance during disasters, and this crew frequents care facilities and hospitals on a daily basis.

These measures wouldn’t stop at ensuring the safety of the elderly; they would also help reduce the burden on rescuers, the police, and municipalities when disaster strikes. And having a more-complete lineup of urban functions in place would act as a magnet, attracting new people to depopulating areas and promising the realization of safe localities also rich in economic opportunity. Thus, though this kind of disaster preparedness would be adapted to the super-aged society, planners need to take a flexible approach allowing for facilities’ use by younger people—and by all in normal times—as well.

Routine activity: Partnerships between municipalities serving the same people

Secondary evacuation’s taking root would help reduce burdens of disaster-stricken municipalities^§ as well as serve to maintain health and public hygiene for disaster victims. But in the cases of Wajima and Suzu, sites accepting secondary evacuees were over 100 km away in Kanazawa, a distance that was a factor in many an elderly persons’ hesitation to relocate.^¶ Travelling long distances is hard on especially the elderly; so there is a need for municipalities serving the same populus to explore partnership initiatives like securing means that, to the extent possible, would allow residents to get around easily within their usual zones of activity even during normal times.

There are already in place intermunicipal partnership platforms covering catchment areas of several tens of kilometers from a hub, such as destination marketing organizations (DMOs)** and ones initiated under the national government’s vision for inter-municipality partnership areas formed around a core city^††. When taking on all these disaster-management needs is beyond the capacity of municipalities and local areas, existing partnership measures—despite their not being directly disaster oriented—could be tapped for identifying and consolidating needs, thereby enhancing the efficacy of disaster-management initiatives (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Five-tier model and desirable local disaster-management measures

Source: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. from “Saigai risk management no hohoron to keizai bunseki no kosa (At the intersection of disaster risk management practicalities and economic analysis),” Norio Okada, in Bosai no Keizai Bunseki (Economic analysis of disaster prevention), Hirokazu Tatano, Akiyoshi Takagi; Keiso Shobo, 2005, and “Chiiki, toshi system-ron toshite mita sogobosai to anzen-anshin no machizukuri (Comprehensive disaster mitigation and security-oriented town planning as elements of community and urban system theory)” in Saigai fukko kenkyu (bessatsu) (Disaster recovery research [special issue]), Norio Okada, 2017, pp. 39–49.

Using our collective intelligence to achieve a safe super-aged society

The Noto Peninsula earthquake laid bare disaster-management vulnerabilities of the super-aged society and the difficulty of addressing them. We should be thinking about how to transition to local societies capable of minimizing damage and injury resulting from disasters while squaring disaster management with the long-term enhancement, satisfaction, and dignity of residents and their ways of life.

Planners must both build on existing policies and make use of private-sector solutions if they are to make super-ageing societies safer in the face of disasters. One particular point to note is that many effective solutions, like power-generating cars and water recycling systems, can only be found by looking beyond the traditional lineup of disaster-related products. Moving forward, local government, businesses, and the community must come together and reexamine their local challenges from a fresh perspective, with disaster management in mind.

Since long before the Noto Peninsula earthquake, the Cabinet Secretariat’s National Resilience Promotion Office has been advancing cooperation between government ministries on emergency-management policy and measures. Mitsubishi Research Institute, too, is engaged in helping bring about a society and, for individuals, routine lives that will not be turned upside down by disasters, participating in I-Resilience Corporation’s Resilient Life Project^‡‡ since its September 2023 launch. The project pursues goals as a team and includes non-emergency management-sector members. Taking up the challenges of emergency management in a super-aged society, and undeterred by their immensity, we are committed to being an energetic force behind the drive to a safer and more-secure society for all.

Works Cited

*The percentage of residences that meet the newer seismic codes is 45% in Wajima and 51% in Suzu, compared to 87% at the national level.
Sources:
Wajima Action Plan on Seismic Retrofitting
https://www.city.wajima.ishikawa.jp/docs/2018063000019/file_contents/taishin_20200401.pdf (Accessed: 1 March 2024)
Suzu Action Plan on Seismic Retrofitting
https://www.city.suzu.lg.jp/uploaded/attachment/2024.pdf (Accessed: 1 March 2024)

†Most people 65 and over want to stay put (51% of men aged 65–74, 75% of men 75 and older; 58% of women aged 65–74, 33% of women 75 and older.). The percentage of those responding that “interaction with and ties to their neighbors or the community” are necessary to them and that they engage with them, rises with age (88% of men 65–74, 94% of men 75 and older; 81% of women aged 65–74, 100% of women 75 and older. See footnote figure for details). Among their reasons for participating in the community, the elderly demographics largely cited a desire to help keep the community alive and vital, reflecting a strong emotional attachment to locale (53% of men aged 65–74, 45% of men 75 and older; 48% of women aged 65–74, 50% of women 75 and older).
Note that the sample of women 75 and older was small, consisting of only 10 in all instances.
Source: Summary survey results of opinion on life in the community, MLIT, 2015
https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001090307.pdf (Accessed: 8 March 2024)

Footnote Figure: Attitudes toward interaction with and ties to neighbors or the community

Source: Mitsubishi Research Institute based on MLIT’s summary survey results of opinion on life in the community and its administrative services internet questionnaire 2015

‡For example, according to MLIT in the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, of the woodframe houses in central Mashiki, where damage was heavy, only 2.2% of those built after June 2000 partially or fully collapsed. This compares to 8.7% of those built between June 1981 and May 2000 and 28.2% of those built before May 1981. Source: Report of the committee analyzing causes of building damage in the Kumamoto Earthquake, MLIT, 2016 https://www.mlit.go.jp/report/press/house05_hh_000633.html (Accessed: 5 February 2024)

§At Miyako City Hall in Iwate, some 15–30 percent of employees were tied up with evacuation and associated duties every day in the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. Source: Investigation of disaster response actions in the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, City of Miyako, Iwate, 2012 https://www.city.miyako.iwate.jp/kikikanri/saigaitaiou_kensyo.html (Accessed: 25 February 2024)

¶In their 2009 analysis of victims of the 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes, Fujimi et. al. reveal that “distance from home” significantly influences decision making about dwelling choice among direct earthquake victims during the post-disaster period when they’re rebuilding their lives. Source: “Evaluation of Benefit Flow from Emergency and Recovery Housing Policy,” Fujimi, Toshio and Tatano, Hirokazu, 2009, in Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu D, vol. 65, no. 3, pp.399–412

**The Japan Tourism Agency envisions these as “incorporated entities that define strategies for developing localities as viable tourism resources according to a clear conceptual vision and in collaboration with diverse participants. They also exist to coordinate between participants to surely and steadily implement those strategies. They thus fulfill a command-post role for developing local tourism resources from the perspective of local operation intended to draw out the community’s ability to earn for itself while cultivating love for and pride in the locality.” Source: Japan Tourism Agency https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_sosiki/jichi_gyousei/renkeichusutoshiken/index.html (Accessed: 26 February 2024)

††The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) defines this as a vision for having population centers in large regional areas serve as core cities that partner with smaller municipalities in their catchment areas to form area blocks that are compact and cohesive socioeconomic units. This partnering would contribute to consolidation and network formation that member municipalities could tap to drive economic growth, attract and build out high-level urban functions, and enhance institutions and services supporting residents’ lives and livelihoods, thereby allowing the areas to maintain a certain level of population and sustain vibrant civil societies and economies. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) https://www.mlit.go.jp/kankocho/page04_000048.html (Accessed: 26 February 2024)

‡‡From the project website: “The Resilient Life Project is intended to help society prepare for all possible risks—whether stemming from natural, societal, or personal events—and, enhancing people’s ability to deal with, overcome, and grow from adversity, achieve a richer everyday life for all.” Source: Resilient Life Project website https://resilient-life-project.i-resilience.co.jp/ (Accessed: 1 March 2024)

Author profile

Saeko Furuichi

Societal Infrastructure Division

The era of century-long lifetimes is upon us, and I want children to be able to look forward to becoming adults. That’s why I’m engaged in developing systems and frameworks to facilitate public–private co-creation, allowing for utilization of all possible means from organically formed interpersonal bonds to digitalization and digital transformation, designed to bring about a world in which everyone can live out their life true to themselves. And before I knew it, I was the mother of four kids!