When analyzing scenarios for the transition to carbon neutrality, we can see that behavior change will play a key role through 2030, and technological innovation and roll-out across society will play key roles through 2050. When looked at from the perspective of end consumption, broadly speaking we see gradual progress in restructuring in the buildings, transport, and industry sectors. In the buildings sector, electrification and decarbonization of power generation will make significant contributions, while in the transport and industry sectors, these moves combined with measures in non-energy domains will boost contributions to reduced CO2 emissions. Decarbonization of generation should not be skewed towards a particular source because of the technological characteristics of zero-emission energy sources (renewables, decarbonized thermal power, and nuclear power) and the different energy- and economic security-related risks.
Rising temperatures correlate with cumulative emissions, not emissions in a single year, so everything will not necessarily be fine if carbon neutrality is achieved just in 2050. Reducing cumulative emissions through early measures also means pursuing behavior change now and connecting this with subsequent technological innovation. Moreover, at the same time as this change in energy supply/demand structures, we need to also progress change in industrial structures. The automotive and energy-related industries will be impacted significantly, and we also need to encourage labor mobility at the right time to support this restructuring.