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Robotics Part 5
A world where we work, learn, play, relax, and eat with robots every day

How Will Robotics Change Agriculture in 2030/2040?

Growing Labor Shortage and Workforce Aging in Agriculture

The work environment in agriculture is changing due to various factors. The first and foremost is the aging of workers. As of 2019, the average age of agricultural workers is 67 years old, with 70% of workers over the age of 65. The susceptibility to labor shortage is also evident. The number of agriculture workers continue to decrease as shown in Figure 1. All of these issues require urgent action. Recent years have seen frequent heavy rainfalls and climate change such as global warming has worsened conditions for agriculture.

Figure 1

Changes in agricultural workforce

Source: Created by Mitsubishi Research Institute based on Statistics on Agricultural Labor Force by Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan

On the other hand, farm management approaches are also changing. To implement structural reforms of agriculture and rural practices, the Japanese government established Farmland Intermediary Management Organizations in 2014, and revised the Agricultural Land Act (revision of requirements for corporations that can own farmland) in 2015. As a result, the scale of farming has gradually expanded. Looking at market players, other industries such as food, beverage, retail, electricity, and transportation are increasingly moving into agriculture, changing the Japanese landscape of agricultural producers and supply chains.

Current Spread of Agricultural Robots

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan (MAFF) has been promoting Smart Agriculture since 2013 as a measure to combat structural changes, especially the aging of agriculture and labor shortage. Smart Agriculture aims to use advanced technologies such as ICT and robots to bring agricultural production technologies and know-how up to date, reduce the burden of agricultural work, and save labor. Advanced technologies have also spread into agriculture, with the market entry of players such as information and telecommunication carriers who have had no prior experience with this industry. In FY 2019, 69 proof tests related to Smart Agriculture were adopted.

The MAFF has also set a policy goal of have a majority of farmers practice data-driven agriculture by 2025. Consequently, the smart use of data and robots is being heavily promoted in agriculture across all of Japan.

Owing to such momentum, a multitude of companies ranging from well-established agricultural machinery manufacturers to late-stage venture companies are developing agricultural robots. Overseas, there are many cases of implementing mechanization (robotization) together with cultivar improvement and cultivation method improvement to realize a comprehensive systemization of cultivation, save labor and raise productivity. In Japan, there are increasing expectations surrounding the development and improved efficiency of agricultural robots. As shown in Figure 2, while robot usage on-site is progressing in some cases, as a whole, there has not been an increase in farmers introducing robots, contrary to expectations. The reasons to blame are based on the following circumstances unique to Japan.

  • ・ Most farms are small in scale, and it is difficult to recover the investment made on expensive robots.
  • ・ In Japan, many varieties are cultivated for one crop, and the heights, intervals, sizes and colors of fruits are diverse. This makes it expensive to develop robots that can handle these variations.
  • ・ Japanese consumers are very particular about the appearance of agricultural products and tend to be unforgiving toward even small damages. Thus, harvesting robots require speed and highly accurate movements, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously.

In addition to the unique circumstances of Japan, including the characteristics of agricultural sites and the consumer mentality surrounding agricultural products, the mismatch between the needs of manufacturers and users is also an issue. For example, while some agricultural robots are versatile enough to handle a variety of crops by changing arm attachments, users say doing so is a hassle.

Figure 2

Examples of agricultural robots

Tomato-harvesting robot developed by Panasonic

Source: Tomato Harvesting Solution (Panasonic)
https://news.panasonic.com/jp/stories/2018/57949.html
(Accessed: February 13, 2020)

Movable strawberry-harvesting robot jointly developed by the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO) and Shibuya Seiki

Source: Stationary Strawberry-Harvesting Robot Integrated with Movable Bench System (NARO)
https://www.naro.affrc.go.jp/project/results/laboratory/brain/2013/13_087.html
(Accessed: February 13, 2020)

Strawberry harvesting robot from Agrobot (Spain)

Source: AGROBOT (Spain-based Agrobot)
http://www.agrobot.com/
(Accessed: February 13, 2020)

Future Vision of Agricultural Robot Implementation in Facility Gardening

The introduction of agricultural robots is expected to begin by 2030 for greenhouse horticulture, such as the cultivation of strawberries and tomatoes. High-value-added crops that are cost competitive are cultivated by institutional horticulture, where it is reasonable to expect capital recovery of agricultural robots and easy to create an environment that favors their introduction. For example, in the recent growing popularity of vertical farming where strawberries are grown about one meter above the ground, institutional horticulture makes it easier to control the internal environment than in open-field farming.

For the time being, harvesting robots that replace humans will be partially introduced to cope with labor shortages during the harvesting season. Around 2040, large-scale facility horticulture will have become popular, where variety improvement and facilities will be comprehensively designed to accommodate harvesting robots. Facilities for supplying renewable energy such as woody biomass will also be installed as a heat source for temperature control in the greenhouse and as a power source for harvesting robots.

Figure 3

Robot implementation in gardening

Source: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

Future Vision of Agricultural Robot Implementation in Large-scale Rice Growing and Open Dry-Field Farming

From 2030 to 2040 the introduction of robots will progress even in large-scale rice cultivation and open field cultivation. The farming work required for rice cultivation is relatively simple, and rice field shapes are standardized. This should make the introduction of robots easier than with other crops. On the other hand, large-scale open-field farming for crops such as cabbage and lettuce requires a large number of workers during the harvesting season. Thus, it is currently necessary to rely on foreign workers. Moreover, given that the harsh working environment has become socially problematic, the need for introducing harvesting robots is high.

Due to these reasons, agricultural robots will mainly be introduced by large-scale agricultural corporations that carry out rice cultivation and alley farming on a scale of several tens to hundreds of hectares. Unmanned remotely controlled tractors are expected to play an important role in cultivating, fertilizing, seeding, and plowing. Drone cameras and weeding robots will be used for crop-dusting and weedkilling. These are not only effective in streamlining processes and reducing health risks, but also in reducing the amount of pesticides used by pinpointing where they are needed, which can attract consumer interest and provide new added value. Unmanned harvesters are expected to operate on farmland during the harvest season, freeing workers from heavy labor. By 2040, we will have achieved a world where various types of robots will play an active role in large-scale rice cultivation and alley farming, facilitated by the improvement of crop varieties that enable robot harvesting and processing, the diversification of sales channels, and robot rental services.

Figure 4

Image of robot implementation in rice farming and open field farming

Source: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

Challenges in Implementing Agricultural Robots

The discussion so far has drawn the initial blueprint for the introduction of agricultural robots, although its implementation will present challenges:

First, there is the issue of farming size. Since the nature and scope of agricultural work varies greatly with the seasons, considering the running time of agricultural robots, the introduction of robots will provide no investment returns unless the scale of farming exceeds a certain level. It may be difficult for agricultural robots to spread not only because of technological or cost limitations but also due to a lack of sufficient farming scale. On the one hand, there is a limited potential for scale in the low uplands, which tend to be mountainous and have many steep slopes. But on the other hand, it is also necessary to develop technologies that can reduce the workload in the cultivation of vegetables and fruit trees, which is relatively small in scale and requires hard work.

The second is the mismatch between developers and users. The aforementioned attachment is an example of such a mismatch. In addition to pursuing only state-of-the-art technologies, one shortcut in spreading the use of agricultural robots would be to review development and planning based on ideas from producers. Public research budgets and schemes developed and planned by farmers themselves would be ideal.

The third is an issue which involves not only agricultural robots but the overall optimization of varieties, facilities, cultivation methods, and supply chains as well. Given that in the future Japanese agriculture will become polarized between mass production of general-purpose products and small-scale production of specialty products, the introduction of agricultural robots should target the mass production market. By prioritizing cost-effectiveness over mass production, the Japanese manufacturing industry can apply its strengths to diverse needs, such as the comprehensive design of varieties, facilities, cultivation methods, supply chains, and agricultural robots.

The fourth is the challenge of creating a system that makes it easy to use agricultural robots. In agriculture, work content and volume vary enormously depending on the season, and poor efficiency, such as the limited operating period of robots, can hinder the introduction of robot technologies. One solution would be to share agricultural robots and improve user convenience if the sharing service can provide full support for repairs, maintenance, and attachment replacement. Such services will help to promote robot introduction by providing benefits that complement the performance of agricultural robots.

The impact of agricultural robots on society must also be considered. For example, there are concerns that if large-scale agricultural corporations start using robots, small-scale competitors may suffer due to declining prices. It may be that small-scale farmers will be able to find the means of creating value beyond price, such as branding of agricultural products and development of sales channels, but for this, the government needs to actively support these farmers. There is also the risk that niche or high-maintenance vegetables will gradually disappear as farmers pursue greater efficiency through the introduction of agricultural robots. Efforts to protect food culture without reducing the value of seasonal and local vegetables will also be crucial.

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